Order parameter fluctuations of seismicity in natural time before and after mainshocks
Sarlis, N. V.; Skordas, E. S.; Varotsos, P. A.; Sarlis, N. V.; Solid State Section and Solid Earth Physics Institute, Physics Department, University of Athens Panepistimiopolis, Zografos 157 84, Athens, Greece, EU; Skordas, E. S.; Solid State Section and Solid Earth Physics Institute, Physics Department, University of Athens Panepistimiopolis, Zografos 157 84, Athens, Greece, EU; Varotsos, P. A.; Solid State Section and Solid Earth Physics Institute, Physics Department, University of Athens Panepistimiopolis, Zografos 157 84, Athens, Greece, EU
Журнал:
EPL (Europhysics Letters)
Дата:
2010-09-01
Аннотация:
It is widely accepted that the observed earthquake scaling laws indicate the proximity of the system to a critical point. Using the order parameter (OP) for seismicity suggested on the basis of natural time as well as the detrended fluctuation analysis of the magnitude time-series, we investigate the behavior of seismicity before and after significant earthquakes. The analysis reveals that the fluctuations of the OP before major earthquakes exhibit a characteristic feature which, if quantified properly, may be used as decision variable to predict the occurrence of a large earthquake in the next time step based solely on the magnitudes of previous earthquakes.
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