Thermal barrier coatings are used to protect turbine blades from the high temperature of the process gas inside a turbine. They consist of a metallic bond coat and of a ceramic top coat with low thermal conductivity. During service, an additional oxide layer forms between bond coat and top coat that eventually causes failure. Finite element simulations show that the roughness of the interface between top and bond coat is crucial for determining the stress state. Lifetime models have been inferred that assume that cracks form in the peak positions at small oxide thickness and propagate when the oxide layer grows and the stress field shifts. A two-dimensional finite element model of crack propagation in the TBC layer is presented. Since the cracks propagate near a material interface and since plasticity may occur in the bond coat, standard tools of fracture mechanics for predicting the crack propagation direction are difficult to apply. This problem is circumvented in a very simple way by propagating short "test cracks" in different directions and optimising to find the crack direction with the maximum energy release rate. It is shown that the energy release rate and the crack propagation direction are sensitive to the details of the stress state and especially to the creep properties of the materials. Implications for failure models are discussed.