In this article we have sought to evaluate the significance of variations in the number of domestic child homicides and to do this in a way that facilitates the searchfor causes in a community's child protection system. Domestic child homicide is but one of many possible outcome measures, one seldom used and almost never related to other events in the system designed to protect children from such catastrophe. The study proposes a novel solution to the statistical problems associated with the evaluation of rare events. In doing so, it provides a tool for monitoring future incidence and initiating exploration of related systemic events that can be used in program management as well as in systems research.