| Автор | Martinez, Michael D. |
| Автор | Gill, Jeff |
| Дата выпуска | 2006 |
| dc.description | Abstract. The recent decline in electoral turnout in Canada has attracted the concern of scholars and public officials, but the partisan consequences of this decline have received only scant attention. We begin to address that question with a simulation based on the 1997 Canadian Election Study. Based on estimated probabilities of individual behaviour derived from multinomial logit models of voter choice, we find that higher turnout would have likely hurt the Liberal party in Quebec, but slightly helped the Liberals outside of Quebec. We interpret this pattern as evidence that generational politics plays a role in shaping the relationship between electoral turnout and partisan support.Résumé. Le déclin récent dans la participation électorale au Canada a attiré lʼintérêt des chercheurs et des représentants de lʼEtat, mais les conséquences partisanes de ce déclin nʼont sucité quʼune attention limitée. Nous commençons à aborder cette question à lʼaide dʼune simulation basée sur lʼEtude électorale canadienne de 1997. En nous appuyant sur des probabilités estimatives du comportement individuel dérivées de modèles logistique multinominal du choix dʼélecteur, nous constatons quʼune participation plus importante aurait probablement nuit au Parti Libéral au Québec, mais aurait légèrement favorisé le Parti Libéral en dehors du Québec. Nous interprétons ce modèle comme preuve que la politique de générations contribue à la formation du rapport entre la participation électorale et lʼappui partisan. |
| Издатель | Cambridge University Press |
| Название | Does Turnout Decline Matter? Electoral Turnout and Partisan Choice in the 1997 Canadian Federal ElectionAn earlier version of this paper was presented at the 2003 annual meeting of the American Political Science Association (Philadelphia). We appreciate helpful comments from Ken Carty, Jan Leighley and this Journalʼs anonymous reviewers. |
| DOI | 10.1017/S0008423906060100 |
| Electronic ISSN | 1744-9324 |
| Print ISSN | 0008-4239 |
| Журнал | Canadian Journal of Political Science |
| Том | 39 |
| Первая страница | 343 |
| Последняя страница | 362 |
| Аффилиация | Martinez Michael D.; University of Florida; University of Florida |
| Аффилиация | Gill Jeff; University of California-Davis; University of California-Davis |
| Выпуск | 2 |
