| Автор | Gilmour, John B. |
| Автор | Rothstein, Paul |
| Дата выпуска | 1996 |
| dc.description | This article analyzes the relative importance of falling electoral loss rates and retirement rates in creating the structure of tenure in the modern Congress. We develop a dynamic model in which electoral loss and voluntary retirement determine a unique long-run equilibrium (or steady-state) tenure profile, which is the fraction of members in each term of service. The model is then used to derive steady-state tenure profiles for the period 1870 to 1930 and to compare them to profiles that are simulated under different counterfactual hypotheses about loss and retirement. We briefly consider more recent congresses as well. We find that declining retirement accounts for 75% of the total long-run change in turnover from 1870 to 1930. However, declining electoral loss accounts for 82% of the total long-run change in turnover from the period of “pre-incumbency” (1926–1946) to the 1980s (1982–1988). |
| Формат | application.pdf |
| Издатель | Cambridge University Press |
| Копирайт | Copyright © Southern Political Science Association 1996 |
| Название | A Dynamic Model of Loss, Retirement, and Tenure in the U.S. House of Representatives |
| Тип | research-article |
| DOI | 10.2307/2960348 |
| Electronic ISSN | 1468-2508 |
| Print ISSN | 0022-3816 |
| Журнал | The Journal of Politics |
| Том | 58 |
| Первая страница | 54 |
| Последняя страница | 68 |
| Аффилиация | Gilmour John B.; The College of William and Mary |
| Аффилиация | Rothstein Paul; Washington University |
| Выпуск | 1 |
